Larry Dignan has an article over at ZDnet about 3D computers starting to roll out in 2010. (Mr. Dignan is referring to a report by a tech market research firm: Jon Peddie Research.
I've been thinking that 3D TV is going to take longer to catch on than the TV makers would like to think. But 3D PCs? Wow. Don't know why they didn't show up first.
The focus on the article and, apparently, the research paper is that 3D capable graphics hardware is going to be -- actually, it is -- rolling into the market in 2010 and that a certain amount of that is going to be coupled with 3D monitors and glasses and actually capable of showing 3D content.
They're predicting a pretty steep ramp-up in 3D-ready PC's in 2011 and beyond, But I'm thinking that is this going to take off way, way faster than 3D TVs. I'm thinking that uses for 3D PCs will instantly shoot straight up and that the demand for working hardware will go with it.
The applications that can use 3D data are like a forest. It's easy to imagine game stuff, and certainly that will drive some consumer demand.. But the surprise will come from how data fantasies of the past twenty years can now actually be put into the hands of consumer users.
Start with the "virtual reality" apps from, say, the era of Michael Crichton's "Disclosure". It might seem a little goofy now, but put into the hands of ordinary, "real people" users to traverse the Google-net; Wow. (Actually, this could be where Bing's contexts start to really shine.)
It's an easy step from ganes and swooshing through the web to, say, Google Earth. Holy Moly; sign me up. And from that, it's very easy to see soldier-on-the-street apps based in mapping and GPS.
Oh yeah! Binocular heads-up displays with map data plus real-time intelligence from drones converted to simulated 3D overlays in the backpack PC you carry. It would be like actual x-ray vision! Like; see the bad guy in the window thru the block building in front of you.
Move from that to medical apps. Doctors and medical techs seeing ultrasounds and MRI scans in real 3D for the price of a high-end laptop computer. Excellent.
This is the kind of development and invention environment that almost feeds itself. One amazing app will lead to hundreds more. So many mundane things simulate the sense of 3D fo great effect now, and all of that data will be readily converted to "real 3D".
I'm thinking that 3D computers will actually drive 3D TV. Stuff on the little screen -- medical apps, military apps, data visualization apps, and, of course, games -- will make the practicality of 3D much more readily apparent and attractive than just the home theater idea by itself.
What it will be is all that cool stuff that gets used on the TV shows, like "Bones" and "House" and "24", will actually be ready to use and affordable on PCs. Once we consumers get ahold of that and use it, the demand to have it on big screens will blossom like crazy.
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